Conventional illumination systems represent more than 20% of the energy footprint of today’s buildings and account for $174 billion in electricity costs. Those dim figures have a brighter future, however, as advanced light sources and controls increasingly phase out conventional means of illumination. By 2020, advanced fluorescent lamps, light emitting diodes (LEDs), and automated control technologies will help reduce estimated energy usage for direct lighting by 60%, according to a new report from Lux Research. Further, improved efficiencies will drive related energy costs down to $119 billion even as the developed world expands its building space by approximately 11.3 billion ft2 per year.
The report, titled “The Future is so Bright: Energy, Carbon, and Cost Savings through Better Lighting,” forecasts adoption rates of advanced lighting technology, and determines the energy, cost, and carbon savings over all major application and building types. It projects that building illumination will see a 15% decline in electricity demand – a development that will affect the lighting industry, ripple through the conventional utility market, and have a profound impact on power generation and even HVAC system providers.
“If you want to improve a building’s energy efficiency, lighting is the first thing you should look at because it’s comparatively easy and inexpensive to update,” said Michael LoCascio, a Senior Analyst for Lux Research, and the report’s lead author. “With the potential cost savings that new technologies like LEDs afford, advanced building illumination is on track for rapid and sizeable adoption, which spells opportunities across markets.”
To prepare the report, Lux Research analysts interviewed lighting suppliers, architects, and other potential buyers before developing an adoption model that projected the energy, carbon, and cost savings enabled by more efficient lighting technologies. Among the report’s key findings:
* Advanced lighting controls will infiltrate non-residential buildings. Advanced lighting controls that reduce lighting requirements up to 60% will be used in more than 30% of commercial and industrial buildings in 2020. That’s up from 6% and 12%, respectively, this year. In addition, they will be applied in over 90% of government and public spaces, respectively.
* LED-based illumination will explode onto the scene in 2014. As LEDs continue to improve on cost and efficiency, their payback period will approach one year. As that happens, they will begin to supplant T8 fluorescent lamps in government and commercial buildings by 2014. Overall, by 2020, LEDs will provide 42% of the light in the residential market; 60% of the commercial, industrial, government, and public building low bay lighting; and dominate exterior and decorative lighting.
* The success of new lighting adoption may breed… slower adoption. As lighting efficiency improves dramatically over the next decade, the prices of electricity may very well stagnate – or indeed fall, which would increase the payback period and reduce the propensity for further efficient lighting adoption.
“The Future is so Bright: Energy, Carbon, and Cost Savings through Better Lighting,” is part of the Lux Green Buildings Intelligence service. Clients subscribing to this service receive ongoing research on market and technology trends, continuous technology scouting reports and proprietary data points in the weekly Lux Research Green Buildings Journal, and on-demand inquiry with Lux Research analysts.
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